The European Central Bank’s wage tracker puts negotiated wage growth at 2.8% in the first half of 2027, up from 2.3% for 2026. The ECB published the updated figures on 4 November, using collective wage agreements signed up to mid-October.
The headline tracker stands at 2.7% for the second half of 2026. It then rises to 2.8% in the first half of 2027 before falling to 2.4% in the third quarter. The ECB said the third-quarter estimate is based on relatively limited employee coverage.
Coverage is 46.2% of employees in participating countries for the 2026 annual figure, 45.6% for the second half of 2026 and 31.8% for the first half of 2027. It falls to 23.3% for the third quarter of 2027.
Compared with its September release, the ECB revised the headline tracker up by around 0.1 percentage points on average for the second half of 2026 and the first half of 2027.
The headline measure covers active collective bargaining agreements and smooths one-off payments over 12 months. Excluding one-off payments, the tracker averages 2.6% for 2026 and stands at 2.9% in the first half of 2027, before easing to 2.5% in the third quarter. With one-off payments unsmoothed, it is 2.7% for 2026 and the first half of 2027, then 2.4% in the third quarter.
The ECB said the comparatively low headline reading in the first half of 2026 still reflects the mechanical effect of one-off payments made in the second half of 2024 and not repeated the following year. That effect disappears fully in the second half of 2026.
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